Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies head into the 2012 season looking to capture
their sixth consecutive National League East title. Coming off one of the
franchise’s best regular season performances ever in 2011, anything short
of a World Series championship will be seen as a failure to the
organization and the city of Philadelphia.

Theme

The Phillies have to win this year. Philadelphia’s championship window is
closing, and closing quickly. The stars of the 2008 championship team are
aging and won’t be playing at a high level forever. As the players grow
older, they are becoming more injury prone. Stars Jimmy Rollins (33),
Chase Utley (33), and Ryan Howard (32) have faced big injury problems in
the last year.

Utley told Sports Illustrated, “I'm not going to be ready for opening day.
I don't really have a timeline on when I will be available. I will take
this process fairly slow because I think it's important to get everything
around my knees working correctly.”

Other staples in Philadelphia’s recent success, like Shane Victorino and
Carlos Ruiz, are over the age of 30. Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee are both
past the age of 30 as well.

It is do or die for Philadelphia now. The ruthless fans will put pressure
on management to find something new if a 2012 flag isn’t flying in center
field next to 1980 and 2008 in April 2013. That is bad news for Charlie
Manuel.

Strength

The Phillies greatest strength is their starting rotation. Halladay, Lee
and Cole Hamels are baseball’s “Big Three.” The three combined for 50 wins
last season. Throw in 25-year old Vance Worley (11-3, 3.01 ERA) and the
Phillies have arguably the best starting rotation in the league.

Weakness

The Phillies offense is their biggest weakness. Who knows when Utley and
Howard are going to be able to play? Freddy Galvis, 22-year old second
baseman, is going to start opening day with Michael Martinez injured as
well. Victorino only hit .279 a year ago. Hunter Pence is the team’s best
offensive weapon, and he will have to have a monster year (especially
while Utley and Howard are out) if the Fightin’ Phils want to have
success.

John Mayberry Jr. has been struggling in spring training. He is batting
.191 with 10 strikeouts. According to Matt Gelb of the Philly.com, we should worry about him no matter what happened in Clearwater,
Fla. Gelb wrote, “Even if Mayberry was hitting .600 with seven home runs
this spring, there would still be pause. The Phillies have no clue what to
expect from Mayberry.” If Mayberry can reach his full potential, it will
take a lot of pressure off of Pence and the starting rotation.

Prediction

The NL East is much improved this year, especially the Marlins. Miami and
Washington are no longer easy wins for the Phillies. However, Philadelphia
will win the division. The starting pitching is too strong. The four
starting pitchers mentioned above will combine for 65 wins (barring
injury).

The season is going to be a disappointment. It will be the same story as
the last couple of seasons. The Phillies 98 regular season wins will not
matter in October. That one, cold fall week will come where none of the
Philadelphia bats step up and they will lose games 3-1 or 2-0 and the ace
pitchers won’t be able to do anything about it.